Long-Term Notes
Overall notes: This company has a lot of problems. But what worries me is whether its place in line, its permits, might have some value. It has no funding right now, but could there be a player that has money but is short on time, and could what FRMI already has save that player time? There is plenty of fake, something-for-nothing nonsense here, but the macro direction really is good.
Technical path: Lease land, generate power, and rent out the land and power.
Stock communities:
- Reddit.
- SA comments.
Signals that I am wrong:
- A buyer is willing to lease the site and provide funding.
- A player is willing to acquire it outright, specifically because it values FRMI's permits and its place in line for equipment purchases.
Learning Notes
Online Thesis
2025-12-14 WSM video
- Business plan: Prepare sites, provide power, and lease the sites and power to data centers.
- The business plan and claimed connections mention Trump a lot. But most likely it has nothing to do with Trump. Lots of AI-generated videos.
- The prospective tenant pulled out, and there is currently no prospective tenant. It needs a prospective tenant to put up money -> then the bank lends. Right now there is neither chicken nor egg.
2026-04-25 WSM video
- It needs 3B to build. The funding is nowhere near enough.
- CEO Toby Neugebauer. He was fired.
Time-Sensitive Notes
Created Notes
| Stock | FRMI | |
|---|---|---|
| Latest Earnings | 26Q1 | |
| Current Price | 5.62 | |
| Diluted Shares | 629.84 M | |
| Market Cap | 3.54 B | # Not small |
| Revenue | 0.00 M | |
| Earning | -675.0 M | |
| PS | INF | # None |
| PE | -5.24 | # It loses money at a pretty good clip |
| Cash | 207.50 M | |
| FCF (-SBC) | -1.3 B | |
| Cash Runway | 0.16 | # If you calculate it this way, it is about to run out of money |
| Dilution - 3 Years | ||
| Dilution - 1 Year | ||
| Short Float % | 12.09% | |
| Days to Cover | 2.33 | |
| Borrow Fee | 0.50% | |
| My MC Forecast - 3 Years | 1.87 B | |
| CAGR | 13.72% | |
| Confidence It Is Unviable | 2.50% | # The business model could actually work, if it is executed well |
| Crash Catalyst Exists | 0.50% | # Less than 0.2 years of cash left |
| No Short-Squeeze Risk | 0.50% | # Not much risk |
| Letmo Score | 10.22% |
| SS Calculation | FRMI | |
|---|---|---|
| Expiration Date | 2028-01-21 | |
| Time to Expiration - Years | 1.62 | |
| Strike Price | 5.00 | |
| Current Price | 5.62 | |
| Credit - Worst | 0.10 | |
| Credit - Matching | 0.95 | |
| Credit - Best | 1.80 | |
| Annual Return - Worst, Incl. Fee | -6.06% | |
| Annual Return - Matching, Incl. Fee | 4.13% | |
| Annual Return - Midpoint, Incl. Fee | 4.13% | |
| Annual Loss - One-Way Commission | 0.14% | |
| Annual Loss - One-Way Spread | 9.34% |
The spread is so high. I will wait until I am down more before considering switching to SS.
Current position:
Total Gain Total Return Exposure Weight
-1,640.79 -11.73% -15,629.22 -1.18%
Decision: Hold the position. I do not understand the business model's lack of viability well enough, so I decided to use a conservative, tiny position.
Price Surged
Current position
Total Gain Total Return Exposure Weight
-10,484.37 -74.95% -24,472.80 -1.78%
Why the price rose: Rumors about OpenAI / a large tenant. The source was non-public notes issued by Citizens JMP Securities.
- Some time has already passed. The former CEO said more concrete news was coming soon; I do not know how credible that is.
- There have been similar stories before, and none of them ended up happening.
The business model is possible, but the SBC, the forced one-sided attempts to tie itself to political figures, and the sky-high valuation when it had nothing at all yet are all real problems. But honestly, I started shorting a little late.
Decision: Add to the short until it reaches -2.5%. But I am not very certain; a lot of this is just feel. Would a hyperscaler really be willing to work with a company whose management is still fighting a legal battle over control? Putting myself in its shoes, I would not be very willing. My sense is that the long-term-tenant rumor will probably fizzle out just like the earlier ones.
| Date | Ticker | Type | Action | Position Before | Position After |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | FRMI | Stock | Short | -1.83% | -2.50% |