Long-Term Notes
Combined notes: The hydrogen forklift product is real, and there is a real use case for it - large indoor warehouses. But their Unit Economy should be problematic. Hydrogen is still far too expensive as a commercial energy source.
Technology route: Hydrogen forklifts and green hydrogen production. | Hydrogen forklifts do seem to have genuine demand in some warehouses and cold-storage facilities, because you cannot produce carbon dioxide indoors, and charging batteries hurts utilization efficiency, forcing you to buy more forklifts. What about swappable batteries?
- Underlying technology, compared with BE: Core disadvantage (picky fuel): At low temperatures, it must rely on expensive platinum catalysts to trigger the reaction. Worse, platinum is easily 'poisoned' by impurities such as carbon monoxide. Therefore, PLUG's machines must use extremely pure hydrogen (99.999%) and absolutely cannot burn natural gas directly. Advantage: It starts extremely quickly, responds rapidly, and is compact. That makes it very suitable for powering equipment that must start and stop frequently (such as PLUG's original forklift business), or for backup power. | Natural gas vs. hydrogen: natural gas already has infrastructure, and involves far fewer steps.
Stock community:
- Reddit.
- 'Opting Out of Brokerage Share Lending / How I Learned to Burn the Shorts' # Hahaha, such a classic.
- SA comments section.
Signals I am wrong:
- They formally begin, or show signs of beginning, to supply data centers as a primary or backup power source.
- The company starts having ample cash and no longer faces near-term bankruptcy risk.
Learning Notes
Online Thesis
2026-05-27 BBM video
- Compared with Bloom Energy. # Different Fuel Cell, but could they possibly pivot?
- Sold the power rights for a site under construction to a data-center company. # Is that legal? It now seems this actually went through?
- Business model: Hydrogen forklifts; selling hydrogen - price subsidies.
- They are reducing Inventory, which helps FCF but is not sustainable.
- A large portion of cash is restricted cash, constrained by banks and used as collateral for forklift-backed loans. My number is unrestricted cash. Around 50M should be released from restrictions each quarter afterward. Current cash is estimated to last through the end of 2026.
Time-Sensitive Notes
Created Notes
| Stock | PLUG | |
|---|---|---|
| Latest Report | 26Q1 | |
| Current Share Price | 2.95 | |
| Diluted Shares | 1.39 B | |
| Market Cap | 4.10 B | # The market cap is large enough; good |
| Revenue | 739.76 M | |
| Earning | -1.7 B | |
| PS | 5.54 | # Its revenue scale is still significant |
| PE | -2.44 | # This cash-burning speed is very nice |
| Cash | 223.19 M | |
| FCF (-SBC) | -721.4 M | |
| Cash Runway | 0.31 | # Less than 0.3 years of cash left. Almost there |
| Dilution 3Y | 33.10% | # Nice dilution pace |
| Dilution 1Y | 46.97% | |
| Short Float % | 25.58% | |
| Days to Cover | 4.13 | |
| Borrow Fee | 0.40% | |
| My Predicted MC in 3Y | 2.16 B | # Assume a 50% reversion toward cash value |
| CAGR | 13.77% | |
| Confidence It Is Not Viable | 2.50% | # Not very confident. After all, their hydrogen-forklift business is real, and solid-state batteries are also a hot theme |
| Has Crash Catalyst | 0.50% | # Yes, cash is already insufficient for the burn, but it seems they can still burn through the end of the year? |
| No Short-Squeeze Risk | 2.00% | # Some risk; the short interest is not low |
| Letmo Score | 8.77% |
| SS Calculation | PLUG | |
|---|---|---|
| Expiration | 2028-01-21 | |
| Time to Expiration - Years | 1.62 | |
| Strike Price | 3.00 | |
| Current Share Price | 2.93 | |
| Credit - Worst | -0.05 | |
| Credit - Matching | 0.03 | |
| Credit - Best | 0.11 | |
| Annual Return - Worst, incl. Borrow Fee | 0.14% | |
| Annual Return - Matching, incl. Borrow Fee | 1.83% | # Per-share price is too low and II is too low; do not use SS for now |
| Annual Return - Mid, incl. Borrow Fee | 1.83% | |
| Annual Loss - One-Way Commission | 0.27% | |
| Annual Loss - One-Way Spread | 1.69% |
Current position:
Total Gain Total Return Exposure Weight
-18,164.55 -39.52% -64,123.05 -4.84%
Decision: Hold the position. The technology and demand are real; it is simply the Unit Economy that has a problem. Hydrogen is too expensive as a commercial energy source. It has latched onto the current data-center energy hype, but in reality it probably is not relevant.