Long-Term Notes
Overall notes: I think quantum computing is at least 20+ years away from true commercial profitability, assuming it is feasible at all. And even if a breakthrough happens, it will likely come from the quantum divisions of companies like GOOGL, IBM, and MSFT. Quantum hardware is genuinely hard. But the algorithm problem is just as hard and is often ignored. Even after a real quantum breakthrough, I think the range of practical applications will be very limited. The most likely use case is some existing NP problems where, if a quantum counterpart exists, complexity might go from N to sqrt(N). But NP -> P, such as Shor's algorithm, may not necessarily happen. For other materials-science and chemistry problems, the latest papers suggest earlier ideas may have been overly optimistic; the current evidence does not support that optimism.
Technology roadmap: Quantum annealing (optimization problems) + gate model (general-purpose computing).
Stock communities:
- Reddit. # Extremely naive and adorable. Most bulls understand nothing about quantum computing, hate short sellers, and post mostly based on emotion.
- Seeking Alpha comments.
Signals that I am wrong:
- Quantum computing solves, comes close to solving, or shows something close to a plausible path toward solving a real-world problem for which there is actual demand.
- A mature system for developing quantum algorithms emerges.
Study Notes
How Quantum Computing Works
2014-08-24 Basic explainer
- P = can be solved quickly
- NP = can be verified quickly | NP-complete
2023-12-17 Video by a PhD in a related field
2023-12-22 Video by a PhD in a related field
- Very useful; it finally made the idea concrete. But an ordinary computer can also cut the search range in half in one step. So the quantum advantage here is only that it can halve the range in a different way. Hardly an Advantage.
2025-04-30 3B1B explainer video
- 🟢 This one is good. The explanation is much better. No wonder it is one of my favorite educational channels.
- |ket>, 2^k possible output = k qubit, you only see the observation
- 2025-05-04 Further explanation
- sqrtN is still meaningless for every real-world problem we currently have.
2025-06-27 Video by a PhD in a related field
- Applied Math PhD working on quantum computing.
- The hardware side is going well. The software side is not.
- Encryption: Shor's factoring algorithm 1994.
- Chemistry: “We conclude that evidence for such an exponential advantage across chemical space has yet to be found.” # This is scientists' way of saying no.
- Simulation / Materials: materials science, such as room-temperature superconductors.
For the quantum field to truly explode, I think the requirement is not just mature quantum computers. We also need a mature mechanism for developing quantum algorithms.
Online Theses
2025-01-18 WSM video
- Claims its quantum computers are “already useful today.” An engineer says only the hybrid option is somewhat useful, but what exactly is hybrid?
2025-03-16 BBM video
- D-Wave's “quantum supremacy” claims.
2025-05-22 BBM video
- Jülich Supercomputing Centre deal. A German research institution. 13M.
- # I plan to research this separately and look for any subsequent comments or progress published online by the Jülich institution.
- It went from a hosted/collaborative deployment to Jülich formally owning it. This was not D-Wave suddenly selling a completely new incremental system.
- Honestly, don't let emotion get in the way. At least three papers came out of it, which does add credibility to the technology.
2025-05-30 Reddit WSB: Quantum Scamming Inc: The Big Short Nobody Saw Coming
- A fairly ordinary analysis. He is short QUBT and QBTS. One point I agree with is that if Quantum really achieves a massive breakthrough, the winners will most likely be the quantum divisions of large companies such as IBM, GOOG, and MSFT.
2025-08-16 WSM video
- The CEO talks about quantum cryptocurrency. This is literally just scamming idiots.
The Company Itself
2026-06-14 CEO interview
- A lot of what he says makes absolutely no sense. Quantum cryptocurrency. Quantum AI.
Time-Sensitive Notes
Created Notes
| Stock | QBTS | |
|---|---|---|
| Latest Filing | 26Q1 | |
| Current Share Price | 26.18 | |
| Diluted Shares | 367.47 M | |
| Market Cap | 9.62 B | # Large enough market cap, good |
| Revenue | 12.44 M | |
| Earnings | -368.0 M | |
| P/S | 773.34 | # Revenue is tiny enough to be ignored, very good |
| P/E | -26.14 | # Honestly, the cash burn rate is ordinary |
| Cash | 588.40 M | |
| FCF (-SBC) | -128.9 M | |
| Cash Runway | 4.57 | # It diluted heavily at high prices and now has plenty of cash |
| Dilution, 3 Years | 43.96% | # Good dilution pace |
| Dilution, 1 Year | 28.32% | |
| Short Float % | 14.12% | |
| Days to Cover | 1.88 | |
| Borrow Fee | 0.40% | |
| My Predicted Market Cap, 3 Years | 5.10 B | # Assume a 50% reversion toward cash value |
| CAGR | 13.69% | |
| Confidence It Is Unviable | 0.50% | # Quite confident; enough research |
| Crash Catalyst Exists | 2.50% | # Too much cash; lacks a catalyst |
| No Short-Squeeze Risk | 1.00% | # Not crowded, and borrow cost is low |
| Letmo Score | 9.69% |
| SS Calculation | QBTS |
|---|---|
| Expiration Date | 2028-01-21 |
| Time to Expiration - Years | 1.62 |
| Strike Price | 25.00 |
| Current Share Price | 25.71 |
| Credit - Worst | 1.25 |
| Credit - Corresponding | 2.20 |
| Credit - Best | 3.65 |
| Annual Return - Worst, Net of Fees | 1.32% |
| Annual Return - Corresponding, Net of Fees | 3.82% |
| Annual Return - Midpoint, Net of Fees | 4.51% |
| Annual Loss - One-Way Commission | 0.03% |
| Annual Loss - One-Way Spread | 2.88% |
Current position:
Total Gain Total Return Exposure Weight
-21,484.89 -24.13% -110,505.78 -8.34%
Government investment. In this 2B round of government investment, it will most likely receive 100M.
Decision: Hold the position. Although I am very confident, the current position size is already dangerously high. I plan to move the position into SS. Benefits: 1 - Some gray-area tax relief. 2 - Earn some potential interest. 3 - Lock in the current very low borrow fee.
| Date | Ticker | Type | Action | Position Before | Position After |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-08 | QBTS | Stock | Cover | -8.30% | |
| 2026-06-08 | QBTS | Synthetic | Short | -8.36% |