Current Summary
Current view: I believe the biggest obstacle to deep-sea mining is not obtaining a legal permit, but the technology and commercial cost. At present and over the medium term, I do not think deep-sea mining can achieve profitable commercial operations. Most of the recent hype around TMC has focused on permitting, and the resulting share-price spikes have created room for the short.
Current decision: Increase the short position from -2.78% to roughly -4.00%. If permit-related news continues to push the share price higher, I plan to keep adding.
Latest Trade
| Date | Ticker | Action | Shares | Total | Execution Price | Current Price | Action Result % | Action Result $ | Weight Before | Weight After |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | TMC | Short | -4,062.00 | 18,847.29 | 4.64 | 4.64 | 0.00% | -0.39 | -2.78% | -3.99% |
Current Position
| Ticker | Total Shares | Average Cost | Current Price | Total Gain | Total Return | Exposure | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMC | -13,317.00 | 6.46 | 4.63 | 24,333.21 | 28.30% | -61,657.71 | -3.98% |
Complete Notes
News: Reports Say TMC Will Attend Trump's Critical-Minerals Roundtable
Share-price move: The stock rose 13% that day and was up 36% from its monthly low.
Current decision: Increase the short position from -2.78% to roughly -4.00%. If permit-related news continues to push the share price higher, I plan to keep adding.
Trade
| Date | Ticker | Action | Shares | Total | Execution Price | Current Price | Action Result % | Action Result $ | Weight Before | Weight After |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | TMC | Short | -4,062.00 | 18,847.29 | 4.64 | 4.64 | 0.00% | -0.39 | -2.78% | -3.99% |
Current Position
| Ticker | Total Shares | Average Cost | Current Price | Total Gain | Total Return | Exposure | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMC | -13,317.00 | 6.46 | 4.63 | 24,333.21 | 28.30% | -61,657.71 | -3.98% |
Created the Note
Note: My old notes were fairly stream-of-consciousness because they were mainly designed for fast recording and later review. I am redesigning them into a standardized framework for recording and publishing investment research.
Current Position
| Ticker | Total Shares | Average Cost | Current Price | Total Gain | Total Return | Exposure | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMC | -9,255.00 | 7.25 | 4.12 | 29,013.03 | 43.21% | -38,130.60 | -2.46% |
Complete Trade Record
| Date | Ticker | Action | Shares | Total | Execution Price | Current Price | Action Result % | Action Result $ | Position Before | Position After |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-08 | TMC | Short | -1,200.00 | 7,818.36 | 6.52 | 4.12 | 36.76% | 2,874.36 | ||
| 2025-07-17 | TMC | Short | -600.00 | 4,752.90 | 7.92 | 4.12 | 47.99% | 2,280.90 | ||
| 2025-10-07 | TMC | Short | -929.00 | 8,751.18 | 9.42 | 4.12 | 56.26% | 4,923.70 | ||
| 2026-01-14 | TMC | Short | -1,257.00 | 9,980.71 | 7.94 | 4.12 | 48.11% | 4,801.87 | ||
| 2026-01-22 | TMC | Short | -1,327.00 | 12,009.35 | 9.05 | 4.12 | 54.48% | 6,542.11 | ||
| 2026-02-19 | TMC | Short | -900.00 | 6,300.00 | 7.00 | 4.12 | 41.14% | 2,592.00 | ||
| 2026-02-19 | TMC | Short | -100.00 | 500.00 | 5.00 | 4.12 | 17.60% | 88.00 | ||
| 2026-02-26 | TMC | Short | -1,488.00 | 9,761.28 | 6.56 | 4.12 | 37.20% | 3,630.72 | ||
| 2026-06-09 | TMC | Short | -1,454.00 | 7,269.85 | 5.00 | 4.12 | 17.60% | 1,279.37 | -2.94% | -3.49% |
Data Analysis
| Ticker | TMC | |
|---|---|---|
| Estimated Next Earnings | 08-17 | |
| Share Price | 4.12 | |
| Diluted Shares | 425.77 M | |
| Market Cap | 1.75 B | # The market cap is not especially large, but it is clearly above 1B. |
| Revenue | 0.00 M | |
| Earning | -319.9 M | |
| PS | INF | # They are not even pretending, though there is nothing to dress up anyway. |
| PE | -5.48 | # The rate of losses is pretty good for a short. |
| Cash | 119.68 M | |
| FCF (-SBC) | -144.6 M | |
| Cash Runway | 0.83 | # Less than one year; this could serve as a crash catalyst. |
| PFCF | -12.13 | |
| Dilution 3Y | 12.33% | |
| Dilution 1Y | 23.31% | # Surprisingly restrained dilution. |
| Short Float % | 14.11% | |
| Days to Cover | 5.17 | # The float is not high, but the days are not low; trading volume must be light. |
| Borrow Fee | 0.43% | |
| Reasonable Market Cap | 139.7 M | # Total tangible assets. |
| Profit Potential | 92.03% | |
| Loss Intensity | -9.12% | # Pretty good. |
| Confidence It Is Not Viable 0-10 | 9 | # I am very confident that deep-sea mining will struggle to commercialize; honestly, I could give it a 10. |
| Has Crash Catalyst 0-10 | 7 | # Cash runway is 0.83 years. |
| No Short-Squeeze Risk 0-10 | 7 | # The risk itself is fairly low, but light trading volume pushes DTC to five days. |
Current View: I believe the biggest obstacle to deep-sea mining is not obtaining a legal permit, but the technology and commercial cost. At present and over the medium term, I do not think deep-sea mining can achieve profitable commercial operations. Most of the recent hype around TMC has focused on permitting, and the resulting share-price spikes have created room for the short.
Working title: The core problem with deep-sea mining is not the permit, but the technology and commercial cost.
Danger Signals
- TMC makes substantive progress toward commercial-scale production.
- TMC secures major financing or a strategic partnership sufficient to complete commercial-scale production.
Company Analysis and Research
Technology route: Deep-sea mining.
Unlike deep-sea mining, deepwater oil production is already a mature industry. Deepwater oil usually costs more than low-cost onshore production, although it is not always materially more expensive than the global onshore average. In any case, commercial-scale deep-sea mining remains unproven.
- Polymetallic nodules are scattered across the seabed, so collection equipment must keep moving. An oil well can keep extracting from a fixed location, while nodules require mobile machinery to collect them continuously, potentially adding substantial complexity and cost.
- Nodules are dense solids. Lifting them from the seabed to the surface is a different engineering problem from transporting liquid petroleum.
- Once brought to the surface, the nodules still require transportation and metallurgical processing to separate nickel, copper, cobalt, and manganese.
Even if I assume the technology is feasible, I still doubt that TMC has enough capital to carry the system through commercialization and achieve acceptable unit economics. Its offshore collection system, vessel operations, and metallurgical processing depend heavily on outside partners, which also leaves the moat unclear.
International permit vs. U.S. permit: Many investors focus on permitting, but I think technology and commercial cost are the harder obstacles. Nautilus obtained a project permit inside Papua New Guinea's exclusive economic zone and still failed. At a minimum, that shows a permit is not proof of commercial viability.
Current Management: Some core members of management were previously involved with Nautilus Minerals. Nautilus ultimately went bankrupt, although some managers and early investors had already realized substantial gains.
- Gerard Barron, CEO + Chairman: An early Nautilus investor who later took a leading role. According to the WSM video, he invested roughly $226,000 and ultimately cashed out about $31M.
- Anthony O'Sullivan, Chief Development Officer: Former Nautilus COO.
History of the commercial timeline: In 2021 the company said initial commercial production would begin in 2024; in 2022/2023 that became late 2024/early 2025; after 2023 it became Q4 2025; in 2024 the company paused some CAPEX while waiting for regulatory clarity; and in 2025/2026 it pivoted to the U.S. NOAA route. The current target is permitting before Q1 2027 and commissioning in Q4 2027. The timeline has continued to move to the right.
Stock Community
Cumulative financing: Nautilus Minerals raised approximately $0.69B before bankruptcy; as of this note, TMC had raised approximately $0.53B.
External Views
2025-07-04 WSM video: Deep Sea Mining: Wall Street's Latest Scam
- International permit vs. U.S. permit: The United States has not ratified the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), so it is not a member of the International Seabed Authority (ISA).
- Nautilus Minerals, the previous deep-sea mining company involving members of current management, went bankrupt in 2019 after raising approximately $0.7B.
- Nautilus worked closely with the Papua New Guinea government and could mine inside the country's exclusive economic zone; the government invested approximately $0.12B directly.
- My view: Nautilus still failed, showing that a permit is not sufficient and that technology and cost matter too. TMC's renewed emphasis on permitting is therefore worth questioning. The Nautilus and TMC projects are not identical: Nautilus planned to cut seafloor massive sulfides in Papua New Guinea waters, while TMC plans to collect polymetallic nodules from deeper international seabed.
- TMC was formerly named DeepGreen and changed its name to TMC during the SPAC transaction.
- TMC CEO Gerard Barron was an early Nautilus Minerals investor. His background is primarily in entrepreneurship, investment, and advertising rather than mining engineering. According to the WSM video, he invested roughly $226,000 and ultimately cashed out about $31M.
- TMC is a Canadian company. Metallurgical processing depends on partners including Japan's PAMCO, while the offshore collection system and operations depend mainly on Dutch company Allseas.
- Developments after the video:
- 2025-08: Published a pre-feasibility study.
- 2026-05: Signed a binding contract with Allseas, targeting the start of commissioning in Q4 2027.
2025-08-18: Iceberg Research's six short reports
- A replay of Nautilus Minerals: the same deep-sea mining story, pushed by the same Gerard Barron group.
- What China truly controls is processing and rare-earth magnets, not TMC's ores.
- The home or primary operating countries of TMC's key partners—including Allseas, PAMCO, Korea Zinc, and Glencore—are within the UNCLOS treaty system.