Long-Term Notes
Overall notes: The company's overall revenue growth has been stagnant for a long time, and earnings have even declined for several quarters. Yet its P/E is still absurdly high. The stock feels severely overvalued; it is basically selling stories. EV competition is intense, and it is hard to sustain high margins. Autonomous driving is a major direction, but I think the end state will be a standardized commodity, so it may not generate monopoly profits. Renewable energy is also highly competitive, and TSLA lacks a moat in either proprietary technology or business model. Robotics is even farther away.
Technology roadmap: EVs, autonomous driving, renewable energy, and robotics.
Signals that I am wrong:
- Autonomous driving begins rolling out at scale and starts generating meaningful profits.
- The company's revenue and earnings return to steady growth.
Time-Sensitive Notes
Created Notes
Stagnant growth. Revenue has gone absolutely nowhere in recent years, and earnings have even started declining.
An absurd P/E. Yet the stock price has barely compressed, and the P/E is still as high as 374.
| SS Calculation | TSLA |
|---|---|
| Expiration Date | 2028-12-15 |
| Time to Expiration - Years | 2.52 |
| Strike Price | 400.00 |
| Current Share Price | 395.13 |
| Credit - Worst | 32.95 |
| Credit - Corresponding | 34.30 |
| Credit - Best | 36.50 |
| Annual Return - Worst, Net of Fees | 4.02% |
| Annual Return - Corresponding, Net of Fees | 4.17% |
| Annual Return - Midpoint, Net of Fees | 4.22% |
| Annual Loss - One-Way Commission | 0.00% |
| Annual Loss - One-Way Spread | 0.18% |
Current position:
Total Gain Total Return Exposure Weight
5,090.00 5.83% -82,180.00 -6.20%
Decision: Hold the position. Let's see whether SPCX's eventual listing draws away some of the money that would otherwise have gone long TSLA, pushing the stock down further.